By Mike Packer, Camila Vieira and Ana Cristina Gadala-Maria

1. Politics, policy, and regulatory velocity

Election cycles across Latin America—particularly in Brazil and Colombia—will shape market sentiment in 2026, but the bigger question for fintech is how policy direction translates into regulatory action.

In Brazil, regardless of electoral outcomes, we expect a familiar pattern: a burst of regulatory activity in the first half of the year, followed by a pause as political focus shifts. The Central Bank has steadily expanded its oversight of fintechs, and that trend is unlikely to reverse. For operators, predictability may matter more than ideology.

In Colombia, the stakes feel higher. Markets are watching for signs of either continued fiscal pressure or a pivot toward greater macro stability and stronger alignment with international partners. For fintechs, this will influence funding conditions, FX volatility and regulatory posture more than day-to-day operations.

More broadly, regulators across the region are tightening enforcement as ecosystems mature. Mexico’s CNBV is actively enforcing the Fintech Law, Brazil’s Central Bank continues to formalize supervision of new business models and Colombia’s SFC is strengthening consumer protection standards. This is less about restriction and more about normalization, and it’s a necessary step for fintech to scale responsibly.

At the same time, AI is now firmly embedded across product, risk and operations. Expect regulators to increasingly focus on areas like fraud, identity and automated decision-making as these tools become mission-critical.

2. Real-time payments hit their scaling phase

If the past few years were about launching real-time rails, 2026 is about whether they truly reshape behavior.

Colombia (Bre-B): After its 2025 launch, Bre-B enters a defining year. With mandated interoperability in place, we’re watching for a “Pix moment”—when P2P usage reaches critical mass and starts displacing cards for everyday payments. Whether that happens in 2026 will depend less on technology and more on merchant and consumer habit change.

Brazil (Pix): Pix continues to evolve from a payments rail into a broader financial product. Pix Automático has the potential to disrupt subscription payments, while Pix Parcelado formalizes BNPL-like behavior without cards. Together, these features further erode the relevance of physical cards for large segments of the population.

Mexico (DiMo): With tens of millions of social program recipients being onboarded, DiMo may finally reach the scale required to challenge Mexico’s cash-heavy economy. If adoption sticks, it could unlock entirely new fintech use cases for informal and underbanked users—much like Pix did in Brazil.

Stablecoins: Brazil’s Stablecoin Law, effective in early 2026, is a landmark development. By institutionalizing stablecoins for B2B cross-border settlement, Brazil becomes one of the first large markets to formally integrate the asset class into its financial system. The implications for cross-border payments, treasury management and FX hedging are significant, and extend well beyond crypto-native players.

3. Private market liquidity: exits re-enter the conversation

After several quiet years, 2026 feels like a turning point for liquidity.

IPOs: Since Nubank’s 2021 listing, Latin America has largely been absent from public markets. That may change this year, with companies like PicPay and AgiBank moving closer to potential U.S. listings. Even one or two successful IPOs could reset expectations across the ecosystem.

In Brazil, the newly launched FÁCIL regime lowers the cost of going public for companies with revenue under R$500 million. If it gains traction, it could create a more viable local exit path, though not necessarily one optimized for global VC structures.

M&A: For companies not heading toward IPOs, consolidation remains the dominant exit path. After increased activity in 2025, we expect continued M&A in areas like BaaS, WhatsApp-based tooling and AI-driven infrastructure, as incumbents and scaled fintechs buy rather than build.

4. Regulation as a catalyst for innovation

Latin America, especially Brazil, has shown that thoughtful regulation can accelerate, not stifle, fintech innovation. Several regulatory-driven shifts are worth watching closely in 2026.

Tokenization: Brazil may be approaching an inflection point. B3 is expected to launch an asset tokenization platform enabling 24/7 trading of real-world assets, while major banks already operate tokenization initiatives around collateralized lending and documentation. Alongside them, a growing set of startups is experimenting with alternative models. This year should reveal whether tokenization moves beyond pilots into scaled, investable infrastructure.

Open Finance (Brazil): Phase four of Open Finance is expected to roll out in early 2026, introducing credit portability, payment initiation without redirection and payroll portability. The real question is not adoption, but impact—particularly on checkout conversion, pricing and customer acquisition dynamics.

Mexico: After years of perceived stagnation following the Fintech Law, 2026 could mark a reset. Mandatory Open Finance standards and broader DiMo adoption have the potential to materially expand addressable markets. A meaningful shift from cash to digital would unlock new embedded finance opportunities across payments, lending and wallets, especially in informal sectors.

5. Incumbents close the gap

Finally, competition is intensifying. Across the region, leading banks are rapidly modernizing. In Brazil, Itaú and Bradesco are pushing deeper into embedded finance and API-driven distribution. In Mexico, BBVA and CitiBanamex have been explicit about large-scale transformations. Bancolombia continues to engage actively with fintechs and regulators alike.

For fintechs, this raises hard questions: which categories remain defensible, where incumbents will dominate, and where AI and new distribution models can still create durable advantages.