Thought Leadership Threads

For 10+ years, fintech startups were in “IPO or bust” mode because there weren’t many active buyers in the ecosystem.

But buyers are back which has profound implications on the outcome distribution for Founders and VCs. This is DEFINITELY worth internalizing. Unpacked:

Yesterday I tweeted an unpopular opinion that deserves unpacking.

Valuations are up. Unicorns are getting birthed faster than ever before. Multiples have hit all-time peaks. New investors are aggressively entering the VC ecosystem.

Who’s to blame? What does it mean? Unpacked:

There’s no denying that right now a lot of money is flooding into #startups. A lot!

But the money won’t always be there. What will happen once the cash stops flowing? Will there be a wave of startups forced to close shop or are there other possible outcomes? A few thoughts 👇

Yesterday @QEDinvestors announced our investment in @GetCapchase and we couldn’t be more excited. The space is white hot with big rounds being announced recently by @pipe and @clearbanc (among others). Curious why so much capital is flowing into the space? A thread: 👇

We’re witnessing one of the most exciting periods in VC history. Funding is flowing freely, valuations are stratospheric and gigantic exits have become the norm. As a VC this should feel great, but does it? Maybe not. What follows is a rant that bears my soul on the topic:

It was amazing to see the reaction to the thread by @dunkhippo33 about “why ownership doesn’t matter for early stage investing”. There are great nuggets in her thread but I have a very different perspective and counter-argument.

The case for why ownership DOES matter:

I asked a number of institutional LPs that invest in VC funds what they thought about the recent rise in exit valuations and if the resulting VC results were going to impact their view of managers and allocations.

You might be surprised about what they said! Unpacked:

It’s been 6-months since I posted a thread about the trend of early stage companies raising of 2-3 back-to-back rounds with minimal progress in-between. I asked some amazing VCs whether or not anything has changed since. They think it’s gotten worse. Their thoughts:

I’ve been asked a lot why there’s so much variance on “valuations relative to traction”. Some companies are getting 100X ARR multiples while others are getting 2X. There’s no simple answer but a big driver is if a company can demonstrate “Multiplicative Momentum”.