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June 8, 2023

Cautious optimism around generative AI

Like everyone else in the world QED’s conversations have been awash in generative AI discourse. Unlike most of our peers, we’re resisting jumping to conclusions.  

It’s been obvious to us that machine learning and AI would be a massive force in our economy – the use cases were too many, the potential pathways for value were too obvious and our portfolio companies were constantly finding ways to use machine learning widgets to increase value – whether that was matching of business addresses in anti-money laundering (a use case from 2018) to data extraction and small business lending fraud (Ocrolus) or transaction labeling at scale (Ntropy).

Moreover, ChatGPT, Bard and its competitors are breakthroughs for user experience and accessibility. What’s less obvious to us is that this particular moment with generative AI and large language models is a transformative moment for financial services.

Here’s how we’re thinking about navigating this territory:

1.    Generative AI will be a massive accelerant for coding, marketing and other content. We are telling all of our companies to begin experimenting.  

2.    Particularly for customer service, we think that opportunities are enormous but financial services requires accuracy and compliance – something LLMs are demonstrably bad at.

One of our portfolio companies, Coru, has already built and is starting to scale a real-time coaching service that has solved the problem of using Chat GPT, while controlling its output for financial advice, customer service, sales or any other type of assistance the user may need.

3.    We still don’t know how quickly (or if) the generalist AI-industry leaders will be able to conquer domain-specific use cases. In this context, the companies who may benefit most from generative AI may also be those who are most at risk.  

4.    We’re not allocating specific investment dollars to an AI mandate, at the margin we’re skeptical that the new wave of AI-hype companies will be backable. Instead we’re more interested in how companies are using this new tool – to accelerate or to unlock previously hard problems.  

5.    More generally, we are confident that generative AI will upset the value chain, so we’re even more focused on moats that we think will persist – access to scarce resources, network effects, deep integrations and sticky contracts.

As always, our core focus is to keep learning. To that end, we’ve written a very simple survey on the strategic questions for generative AI in fintech. We’d love your input!

By QED Partner Amias Gerety and QED Principal Adams Conrad.

Like everyone else in the world QED’s conversations have been awash in generative AI discourse. Unlike most of our peers, we’re resisting jumping to conclusions.  

It’s been obvious to us that machine learning and AI would be a massive force in our economy – the use cases were too many, the potential pathways for value were too obvious and our portfolio companies were constantly finding ways to use machine learning widgets to increase value – whether that was matching of business addresses in anti-money laundering (a use case from 2018) to data extraction and small business lending fraud (Ocrolus) or transaction labeling at scale (Ntropy).

Moreover, ChatGPT, Bard and its competitors are breakthroughs for user experience and accessibility. What’s less obvious to us is that this particular moment with generative AI and large language models is a transformative moment for financial services.

Here’s how we’re thinking about navigating this territory:

1.    Generative AI will be a massive accelerant for coding, marketing and other content. We are telling all of our companies to begin experimenting.  

2.    Particularly for customer service, we think that opportunities are enormous but financial services requires accuracy and compliance – something LLMs are demonstrably bad at.

One of our portfolio companies, Coru, has already built and is starting to scale a real-time coaching service that has solved the problem of using Chat GPT, while controlling its output for financial advice, customer service, sales or any other type of assistance the user may need.

3.    We still don’t know how quickly (or if) the generalist AI-industry leaders will be able to conquer domain-specific use cases. In this context, the companies who may benefit most from generative AI may also be those who are most at risk.  

4.    We’re not allocating specific investment dollars to an AI mandate, at the margin we’re skeptical that the new wave of AI-hype companies will be backable. Instead we’re more interested in how companies are using this new tool – to accelerate or to unlock previously hard problems.  

5.    More generally, we are confident that generative AI will upset the value chain, so we’re even more focused on moats that we think will persist – access to scarce resources, network effects, deep integrations and sticky contracts.

As always, our core focus is to keep learning. To that end, we’ve written a very simple survey on the strategic questions for generative AI in fintech. We’d love your input!

By QED Partner Amias Gerety and QED Principal Adams Conrad.

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01

Settlement Collapse

Value transfer moves from days - corresponding banking, T+1 securities - to seconds. Working capital tied up in float is released.

02

Cost Collapse

Marginal transaction cost approaches zero: fractions of a cent, versus 1-6% on card and corresponding rails.

03

Programmability

Money becomes an object that carries logic - escrow, splits, rebates, compliance - executed by code, not back offices.

Pure infrastructure with no revenue accrual

Layer-1 chains and general-purpose middleware — outside our circle of competence and typically outside our stage.

Speculative asset creation

NFT platforms, memecoins, prediction markets styled as products — mapping to none of the five functions; structurally uninvestable for us.

Three structural truths cut across all five functions.

(a)

Regulated-first wins

The 2020/21 cycle proved permissionless purity does not survive contact with real financial regulation. GENIUS, MiCA, CLARITY and the UK/Singapore regimes are producing founders who start from “how do we get licensed” and build backwards — precisely the founder profile QED has always preferred.
(b)

Incumbents upgraded, not disintermediated

JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are jointly building a tokenized-deposit network; Visa launched a stablecoin platform in July 2026; 140+ businesses signed an open stablecoin standard. Banks migrate — and new-generation infrastructure companies own the picks and shovels of that migration.
(c)

Emerging markets feel it first

Every function improves most where the fiat experience is worst: cross-border payments, dollar access, investment product availability, working-capital finance. Those are exactly the geographies where QED has fintech ventures’ deepest footprint. Our geographic distribution is not incidental to the tokenization thesis — it is the thesis.

Trade & working-capital finance

Finkargo( LatAm import finance) and OatFi(B2B working-capital infrastructure) sit directly on flows whose logical settlement layer is stablecoin.

Collateralized digital-asset lending

Tokenized Treasuries, equities and stablecoin holdings as instant, programmable collateral.

On-chain private credt

Maple, Centrifuge and emerging institutional protocols - credit funds migrating to programmable rails.

Why QED is advanced

Credit is QED's craft: distinguishing lending businesses from fintechs pretending to be one, charge-offs earned from charge-offs deferred. On-chain credit is a straight-line extension, not a stretch.